Blind Optimism
“This is the year, man.”
And I’m like, what? Why is this the year? Just because? I’m hearing all of these reason why they will make some noise this year. Howard and Utley have a year of experience and leadership under their belts now and can make a step. We have six solid starting pitchers. The rest of the division is bad. And, I see those reasons as being valid and all. It’s just that I tend to see the negatives overshadowing the positives for the Phillies this year. Don’t get it twisted: I’m a die hard Phils fan and would love to see them do it. But they’re probably not going to and here’s why:
1. I refuse to believe Ryan Howard will equal his numbers from last year.
This one is just basic logic. When you hit 58 homers with raw, natural talent, you become a very scary guy to pitch to. Which means teams are likely going to walk Howard in any kind of RBI situation and take their chances with Pat Burrell and/or Wes Helms. Which isn’t good for the Phillies. I know they tried, but they didn’t try hard enough to get a big bat to protect Howard from all of the walks he’s about to receive.
2. This bullpen is awful.
I mean, absolutely dreadful. Tom Gordon is solid, but he’s another year older. As we saw last year, he was overworked in the first half of the season and became ineffective in the second half. So who did the Phillies get to set up Gordon and be an insurance policy for him? Antonio Alfonseca, who hasn’t survived a full season of work since 2004. And since the bullpen is a domino game, the next guy to fill in for Alfonseca is Ryan Madson, whom the Phillies have fried mentally by constantly flip-flopping him between starting and being in the bullpen. So who backs him up? Geoff Geary. And you know, he might be the guy I have the most faith in out of all of the relievers, which isn’t saying a lot. He really stepped up last season and proved he could be in the majors. Once again, the Phillies tried but not hard enough to get middle relief for Jon Lieber. And Lieber is another guy who is mentally fried from the Phillies flip-flopping whether or not they’re going to trade him or keep him. As we saw last year, Lieber didn’t pitch well while being a part of trade talks.
3. This is the Phillies we’re talking about.
Yes, they have a bunch of exciting young talents that will be superstars for a long time or are on their way. But typical of the Phillies, and you may have noticed I’ve been building to this point, they just didn’t get enough done in the offseason. Freddy Garcia was a great acquisition, but while everyone was hungry for David Bell and Mike Lieberthal to get off the team, the Phillies really came up small in trying to replace them. They couldn’t move Pat Burrell, a guy who is clearly lost in his own mind. They couldn’t capitalize on Aaron Rowand’s inflated market value, though once again, they tried hard. So between those four positions alone, you have four spots in the line up that likely won’t hit any better than .270 this year. Teams have been to the World Series on the strength of one or two major bats before, but it takes a lot of overachieving throughout the team’s lineup to get there. Basically, in my opinion, we need a miracle season from Burrell, Helms, and Rowand. Let’s start the prayer circles now.
I love the Phillies and I hope they can make strides this year, but they really need to make a move or two to improve their bullpen and get a better offensive outfielder to take Rowand’s or Burrell’s spot. This team is close enough that I would reverse course really fast with the right moves, but as it stands right now, this team is not good enough to be a World Series contender, and probably is right on track to finish just short of winning the NL East again.
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Posted on February 17, 2007 by Brian | Filed Under Philadelphia
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Brian, I agree with you 100% on your analysis. I have serious doubts about the prospects for the Phils this year, especially with the weak bullpen. Burrell is still in the outfield (which makes the outfield slow and weak) and as you pointed out, Howard is the new Barry Bonds – he’ll lead the league in walks this year.
The only other major difference that I see is an attitude one. The team’s cancer was attacked by some needed chemotherapy last year and only one little tumor remains…
Remember how they cranked it up last year once they got rid of Abreu and a few of those nonsense pitchers? I think part of the hope is that the attitude in the locker room is more conducive to winning this year.
You must also keep in mind this is a team that has been competing for the wild card the last 2 years, still competing in the final games of September. There’s no reason to think that they won’t be in the same position this year. They have enough talent on the team despite its weakness to compete for and in the playoffs. I’m sure the fan interest in the team will also be increased which should have an effect on the way the team performs. I agree that many teams will walk Howard in RBI situations, but I am also expecting more from Burrell this year. I have a feeling he’ll get refocused, contribute more, and decrease his strike outs.
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