Five Reasons Why The Eagles Won’t Make the Playoffs
So the Eagles are coming off their worst season in forever. Most fans think it was a fluke. I don’t. Here’s why.
- Defenses have figured out how to dominate an offense with zero up-the-gut run potential. Send eight guys, every time. Doesn’t matter how good your offensive line is. McNabb should still be worried.
- Can’t put all your eggs in one Baskett. The Eagles receiving core is young, inexperienced, and simply not NFL caliber. I’m calling it as I see it. Greg Lewis? Doesn’t start on most teams. Reggie Brown? Maybe a 3rd receiver on most quality teams. Still, he’s young.
- Dhani who? Dhani “this is flag football right” Jones, that’s who. Look, the Eagles are weak at LB, despite having Trot. They are piss-poor at pass coverage. Dallas’ main weapon against the Birds has been the deep Bledsoe pass to a TE cutting to the outside, having burnt by his OLB coverage. McCoy is young and inexperienced. He’s definitely not got Johnson’s defensive scheme in his bones yet.
- Did I say “no running game”? That’s right. More 70/30 and 80/20 pass to run ratios, despite Andy’s best promises. Reno better not play much either. He’s got heart but he ain’t got skills. Unless Buckhalter manages to stay injury free and manages to run people over up the middle, this team is right back at dink and dunk.
- The NFC East has gotten noticably better, while the Eagles have improved marginally, and mostly only at DL and OL positions. While the line is crucial, they don’t score touchdowns.
Bonus reason: Dawkins is getting old. He’s going to lose a step. He already lost a step last year. This team is going to be fighting in dog fight after dog fight, and with 1) the veteran leaders getting old and 2) guys coming off injury and 3) young guys trying to learn the system, I just don’t see them winning enough dogfights.
Prediction: Eagles go 9-7 and miss the playoffs
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Posted on August 17, 2006 by Micah | Filed Under Eagles, Philadelphia
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you are an idiot….. go finish your GED, then we will talk…….
no you’re an idiot.
idiots resort to insult when they have no rational argument.
This post makes me sad.
I think your assessment is accurate for 1-3 but with the improved offensive line it seems like they really will run the ball more. A return to 2003 form hopefully where they still threw the ball a lot but ran it with the lead in the 2nd half.
As for the improvements in the NFC East, Portis is injured and both Dallas and NY seem to be going through some locker room upheaval right now.
Dawkins was a beast last night.
Josh,
Hey, I’d like to think otherwise, but this is how I feel.
Dawkins can still play some good D. I’m just saying that he can also get burned deep. I also saw at least one long run last night that Dawkins could have prevented, but required a tackle by Barber 40 yards or so down the field.
You might be right about the NFC East. Time will tell.
Let’s think about this, when the eagles have the starters and the rotations in games, they have effectively driven the ball down the field and have only given up 3 points. Now the backups have played poorly, but remember it’s all backups, not backups mixed in with starters, that is the difference, the Eagles are young and inexperienced at Wide Receiver, but I will take this corps over Torrence Small & Charles Johnson, James Transh, Pinkston & Mitchell anyday, NFC Champion game 3 years running with these receivers, Buckhalter is back, they will pick up another back who can move the pile, i.e. Steven Davis, Duckett, LB Corps are week. but with strong Defensive Line play, that can compensate, Dawkins is Dawkins, pure and simple, nobody better but last year, when you had to concentrate on covering for everyone else, both corners out, you can’t do your job, he will do his job this year, Baskett is a rookie, but so was Rice & Carter at one time, time will tell, Playoffs is a definite, Skins got back field issues, QB and RB, Cowboys could implode any minute, Giants got an Crazy coach and the New York Media all over Eli,
I’m totally willing to grant some weakness in the other teams.
I just want to remind everyone what happens when the good defenses stack the line for pass again the Eagles. McNabb doesn’t get a chance to throw.
Now what you say above about the prospects of the running game is very speculative. Sure, it could work it out. But I’m betting that they gravitate right back to pass,pass,pass,pass,run,pass,pass,pass,pass,…
Why are you so confident that they’ll pick up someone who can move the pile? When’s the last time they’ve shown you evidence of doing something like that?
Buck and Westbrook used to be part of the 3 head monster attack when they had Duce. Moats lays the ball down. Mahe isn’t consistant enough, true they haven’t done it in the past, but with a bigger and healther line, they have to blast off and run it down the gut. Will they, only time will tell
but say they do go back to pass, pass, pass, pass run, pass pass pass pass
it has worked in the “Past” no pun intended. Who cares how they win, as long as they do, there is no concrete formula for winning it all, Remember the Pats initially won it without a 1000 yd rusher the first year and a group of no name receivers
True, true, true.
You’ve got good points. I think the Birds could surprise us this year with a good season. BUT, I’m giving you reasons why not to be surprised if you’re not surprised;-)
Name 3 QBS you would rather have than McNab in the NFC?
Great QBs make young WRs better, however, Wide Receivers do not win super bowls…D and O lines do?
Who’s offensive and Defensive line is better than the Birds in the NFC?
How many injuries did the Eagles sustain to key players/positions last year?
Your only valid point is Dhani Jones is probably the weakest link, by mid-season, I doubt he will be starter.
Lastly, fear teams that had an off year, that play with something to prove.
You’re entitled to your opinion Micah but I think you are under estimating this team. They (the Eagles) have a very good “D” line that should get better as the year goes on and appears to have a very good “O” line and they have the best QB in the division and maybe the conference, that is the four most important elements of a football team. I’m not one of these people who hates Dallas more than any other team, I have always looked at the Giants has our biggest rivalry but I think Dallas is way overrated on both sides of the ball. The Giants and Redskins are good teams but the Redskins do not have the QB to be any better than they were last year. This division will be between the Eagles and the Giants. I think the Eagles can edge the out because of the play at the line of scrimmage. I would like to see the receivers upgraded but they still have more potential and talent than the group they threw out there 2 & 3 years ago. Tight end is as good as it has ever been and they know how to spread the ball around in this offense. The last half of the year before TO got here they were a statistically better offence than the first half of 2004 with TO.
Name 3 QBS you would rather have than McNab in the NFC?
Can’t. But it doesn’t matter who your QB is when defenses smell pass on every play. Doesn’t matter how good your OL is either. If defenses smell pass, well, just think back to when McNabb was getting crushed last year…
Who’s offensive and Defensive line is better than the Birds in the NFC?
No one’s. But again, that doesn’t matter when the opposing defense is crowding the box and sending more guys on the blitz than there are blockers.
Ron, you make some good points. I agree that dog fights get won on the line and since the Birds have the best lines in the NFC, they might win some of these dog fights. Still, 9-7 is a pretty reasonable record here.
The main points of my post stand:
The Eagles will get wiped by piss-poor OLB pass coverage
The Eagles will be under constant pressure on offense because they don’t have any up the gut, blitz-breaking run game.
There were two reasons why last year, people could cover the pass EVERY play… 1. The Eagles had TO, and they heavily tilted the playbook in his direction in the offseason. 2. McNabb was injured before the season started, playing those first 9 games with a hernia. Remember, a huge part of the “blitz-breaking run game” is McNabb’s ability to scramble. He didn’t have that last year…
Also, remember that Reid calls any short dumb-off pass to a RB a “running” play, where it doesn’t show up in the stats. Much of their lopsided statistics from 2000-2004 was because of this (also accounting for Westbrook’s high “recieving” yards year after year, and before Westbrook, it was the same thing with Duce)…
The key to all of this is McNabb’s health. You could tell right away last year that he didn’t have it. You can also tell right away that this year he does… THAT is the key… The Eagles will be better than people around the country are expecting…
1. Incorrect. Replacing Fraley with a developed Jackson provides a tremendous improvement. Having the other guys healthy makes matters better as well. Andrews has drmatically improved in the offseason over his Pro Bowl season. Adding monsters like Justice and Gilles shows that we have depth to start the season and possible improvements on the line by the end of the season. These guys can block the run. Last year we could not in the least. We also struggled with it in 2004. This is a significantly improved line.
2. You’re not really making a point. Yes our WRs are young and perhaps insufficiently experienced. All of them appear to strugle to get separation. But McNabb is throwing better than ever. He’s demonstrating that he needs less and less separation, particularly if his line can maintain protection long enough for him to go through his progressions. That wasn’t there in 2005, and it wasn’t there against the Pats front seven in the Super Bowl. it’s there now. More importantly, LJ and Westbrook provide two of the best pass receiving options in the league. I agree that our WRs are a weakness, but I also see significant mitigating factors in McNabb, Westbrook, and Smith.
3. I agree that we are terrible at certain wrinkles in pass coverage. The short pass, the TE cut, yeah, our OLBs are exposed. This IS a problem. However we have a top 3 DL rotation, and that translates into significantly better pass protection. It’sd one thing to have a pass pro problem but another thing to say our pass pro is terrible. This defense
4. For one you’re repeating yourself here. Secondly, dink and dunk is great as long as it moves the chains and controlls the football. You will not see 74/26 ratios again this year unless we’re behind the whole game.
5. You’ve been playing too much fantasy football. Look at teams that dominated rings and look at their lines. Dallas in the 90s, anyone? Let’s see how well Alexander performs in comparison to last year without Hutch pulling for him in the G slot. Football games are won and lost on the line of scrimmage. You think the Eagles lost the SB because McNabb got tired and because the Pats had better offensive weapons? I saw an O line that got beat by the Pats front seven, crushed, dominated. I saw McNabb get pummelled over and over again and continue to get up and get back in the huddle. That game was won on the line. The Eagles lost last year. where? On both lines. It ain’t highlight reel, but it is film, and it is football.
I agree with everything that’s been said here. I think the Eagles are better than they were at the start of last season.
I also agree that games are won or lost on the line, and I agree that the Fraley->Jackson upgrade is huge.
But, the 9-7 prediction stands. So does the Zero Up The Gut run potential prediction. This OL is a great OL, but it was built for pass protection, not run blocking.
With #2 I am making a point. Namely, that we’ve got a set of receivers who A) don’t know how to create separation B) are still learning to run routes C) who are undersized (except for Baskett, who I highly doubt will make a significant impact). Don’t put all your eggs in one Bakett refers to the fact that right now, the Eagles have exactly one highly-potent option for McNabb -> Westbrook. As far as the TEs go, I’ve been underwhelmed with LJs performance as an Eagle. I had high expectations for him but he drops too many balls and is too inconsistent. BTW, speaking of highlight reels, LJ is good at getting on them, but often by turning an easy catch into a tough one.
Look. The Eagles are going to be 2 games over .500 this year. That’s not too shabby. They’ve very good OL and DLs. They’ve also got some big weaknesses on both sides of the ball. They’ll win some dogfights be cause of their lines, but they’ll also lose some because 1) they can’t run up the gut 2) they have minimal deep threat capacity 3) they are weak at OLB.
Those three weaknesses will lose them some games. They aren’t insignificant shortcomings. You’ve got to be able to hold on to the lead. But if you can’t cover the 10-20 yard passes, teams will be able to quickly move the ball down the field and get right back in the game. This problem is compounded when you can’t run the ball up the gut to pick up that extra first down and instead have to resort to the pass on 3rd down and stop the clock an extra 10 times per game.
Name the 7 losses?
Looking at their schedule, they will be 6-2 by the half-way point. Which means that they will go 3-5 the second half. Eagles teams have historically played better football the second half of a season. Barring any catastrophic injuries to key players. I think you are way off the mark.
11-5 and a return to the NFC championship at home
Great Analysis
Wow did you come up with that all by yourself??
Without your analysis how would I have ever known that:
1. Eagles have no recievers
2. Eagles have problems with LB position
3. Eagles dont run the ball enough
4. NFC East (with Gibbs and Parcells) is tougher
You could work for Comcast, better yet ESPN with the expert analysis of the Eagles situation you just put forth.
STICK WITH YOUR DAY JOB BUDDY…..
Week 1 - Texans, AWAY
Prediction: W (1-0)
Week 2 - Giants, HOME
Prediction: L (1-1)
Week 3 - 49ers, AWAY
Prediction: W (2-1)
Week 4 - Packers, HOME - MNF
Prediction: W (3-1)
Week 5 - Cowboys, HOME
Prediction: W (4-1)
Week 6 - Saints, AWAY
Prediction: W (5-1)
Week 7 - Buccaneers, AWAY
Prediction: L (5-2)
Week 8 - Jaguars, HOME
Prediction: L (5-3)
Week 9 - Bye
Week 10 - Redskins, HOME
Prediction: L (5-4)
Week 11 - Titans, HOME
Prediction: W (6-4)
Week 12 - Colts, AWAY
Prediction: L (6-5)
Week 13 - Panthers, HOME - MNF
Prediction: W (7-5)
Week 14 - Redskins, AWAY
Prediction: W (8-5)
Week 15 - Giants, AWAY
Prediction: W (9-5)
Week 16 - Cowboys, AWAY - Christmas Day
Prediction: L (9-6)
Week 17 - Atlanta, HOME
Prediction: L (9-7)
STICK WITH YOUR DAY JOB BUDDY…..
Of course this guy commits the fallacy of a false dilemma (as if you can’t have an educated opinion and a day job at the same time). Not to mention the fact that he’s denying in this statement what so many of us already know: that the professional analysts are mostly duds anyway. There are a few good ones (Jaws, for example), but most of them suck. Or do you disagree?
Nowhere in this post did I claim to be saying something completely original. I’ve only tried to sum up what I see as the five biggest reasons the Eagles are headed for another playoff-less season.
If you think I duped myself in the first five reasons, then take the “Dawkins will have lost a step” reason as the fifth one.
Summed up, my five reasons are:
1. Defenses have learned how to shut down pass only offenses by sending extra men on blitz packages
2.The only consistently potent offensive weapon that McNabb has in his arsenal is the pass to Westbrook when he’s covered by a LB
3. Here’s the one people agree with me on: Eagles D has a gaping hole: piss-poor LB pass coverage.
4. No inside running game. Not only do they not have the backs, but they don’t have a run block line. This line is for pass protection.
5. My weakest point: the NFC East has gotten better.
[…] « Five Reasons Why The Eagles Won’t Make the Playoffs […]
9-7 is a very credible forecast. The league is built for parity, and the NFC East is one of the toughest places to excel. The schedule away from the NFC East is also very challenging. I also think a majority of the individual points are more likely than not to be true. It is wishful thinking that everything will go right.
I think the biggest upside potential is that a) TO can blow up anyday in which case the Cowboys fall back to the parity level, and b) the Redskins’ skill players are great, but their lines are probably not as good as they need to be.
I don’t see the Eagles losing 3 in a row, nor will they lose at home against Atlanta unless it is throw away game and they do not need to win it to secure home field through out. The Eagles will not go 4-4 at home.
If we look back over the last 6 seasons, especially prior to T.O.’s arrival the Eagles did not have WRs…it was considered by many their weakest part of their team, however, they still managed to reach the NFC championship round.
Hey, leave me alone, I carry the ball when needed. I’m no Emmitt Smith but what do you want?
Check out what this idiot wrote about our beloved birds:
http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/5872884
Micah, even with new information there is no convincing you that your positions require modifications.
Rebuttals to your summarized points
1. The success of the screen pass was designed for blitzing coverage. The 48 yard Buckhalter play against the Ravens was made possible by a constant blitzing by the defense. No team executes this play better even if it adds to your imbalance of pass plays vs. run plays, albeit more successfully.
2. I guess the two TE package is being overlooked. This was the package that got us over the NFC Championship hump (Chad Lewis’ 2 TDs) and made LJ Smith one of the top TEs in the league before McNabbs injury slowed his stats. Importance of Two TE set was realized in the SuperBowl when LJ was complimented by a construction worker rather than Lewis. The LBs could key in on one versus the other and limit LJs effectiveness. That’s why the Eagles brought in a Schobel to fortify this set in Lewis absence.
3. Dhani Jones has been pushed in train camp to cover the pass better. Rookies such as Cogong and Gaither have exceptional speed although they need to learn the system better. If Jones is not able to carry the weight Barbers familiarity with the system (he was brought back as LB insurance) can overcome any glaring deficiency.
4. We still have not seen their ability in blocking schemes so far this preseason, but Jackson is an improvement. I think Davis or another power back would allow for run plays on 3rd and short versus pass plays. But I am encouraged that another Power back is on the way.
5. If you look at the past few Super Bowl champs it was staying the course that lead them to the promised land not an upheaval of the roster. Pittsburgh, New England, Tampa Bay, Baltimore, none of these teams made any significant off-season changes the years they won and improved to the point of being champs. Quick fixes may work in the NBA, but consistant improvement is the key with the NFL. The NFC East is marginally more competitive, but not to the point that one team cannot dominate.
Cruel1, you make some excellent points, especially the 2 TE package. Screens work some of the time, but I wouldn’t call them the majik bullet.
The major difference between you and me, though, is that I need to see these things realized in a real NFL game before I become a believer. Right now, they are speculative solutions, to what I see as deep problems.
Interesting info - Eagles will go 10-6 or 11-5, Steven Davis was at the NovaCare Today (remember my statement on 8/18) Dhani is the weak leak on Defense, but tell me a defense that doesn’t have at least one, with 4 healthy DE to take pressure off of him, he will be Ok, better than OK. the Wide Receiver discussion will go on all Season, LJ was having a Pro Bowl season until McNabb went down, the Eagles will go 4-2 in the division, Someone will get swept, Did Seattle have a number one receiver last year, when Carolina got beat in the Super Bowl did they have a number one?, When did New England ever have a number one? A number one receiver is a Luxury that only a few teams have, The NFC east is definitely a better division than past years, but Eagles are still the top team in my opinion, everyone is counting the Eagles out, but it’s not going to happen, “Eggs in a Baskett” is cute, but he will have a solid year, you win games by getting points and stopping points, its not by how many catches your receivers have, how many yards you give up on Defense, Points, outscoring the other team by any means Necessary, Eagles are Solid this year,
So to summarize,
0 up the gut run potential
less than NFL caliber WRs
bad LB pass coverage (piss-poor, I think was the term)
No running game
Improved competition
And yet you give them a 9-7 record at the end??? If you really think all of the problems you stated are legit, don’t you think 5-11 is closer to the truth?
When the Eagles were winning all those games the NFC east was HORRIBLE.
Cowboys and Skins and giants were no threat to win games not one of their fans could conceive that they were playoff caliber
OL and DL are nice, but Dallas and Redskins look to be in the top 5 defences this year and the Giants have the best pass rush in the league
Runyon will need help with Strahan and the their pass rush seems to be improved over last year.
dallas and Washingington offences will be more potent ((Now that Wash has Duckett) and the giants bring back all their skill posistions from last year
face it, eagles are not going to have a playoff season unless the other teams are decimated by injuries
Is anyone in the league afraid of any eagles WRs ??? Heck, the piss poor giants coverage unit from last year could cover these guys
Ok here are my thoughts…..I had jotted down who needed to go last year and what type of players needed to be brought in to make this team soar again. I wrote up this list before last years Superbowl , I think that just about everyone knew what we needed. Get rid of McMullan, McMahon, Detmer,Gordon, Bucky, Kulu. Go get….starting DT(Bunky), De (howard), WR for the slot (gaff), TE who can block (maybe Sch-we’ll see), FB (didnt happen), RB (didnt happen but maybe bucky will surprise us), LB (welcome back Barber), Backup QB (Garcia), Upgrade Oline (draft). I’d say my perdictions were correct. I cant say I feel super confident in tis team but….I believe we upgraded this offseason alot. I also think we will win 9 maybe 10 games this year but I think it will be good enough to make the playoffs. Our deffence is better and i think these reciveres are better than the Small/Johnso/thrash days. I think we’ll be ok. Good argument though.
I agree the team is perplexing. Ried going after no help at running back or wide receiver in the draft has me guessing. I know they where decimated by TO emotionally, and teamwise with the loss of McNabb. It seemed that they then went through a deep funk on and off the field. I hope they are over all that stuff.
But McNabb is back, so is Westbrook (wideout #1), LJ (wideout #2) and a few others either aquired off-season or back from IR.
But I think with Morningweg giving Reid a break, and much improved lines, they have a chance to stay competitive in the NFC East, maybe a number 2 finish and a wildcard, who knows.
ok, linebackers are week in pass coverage but shaun barber and trot can stuff a run and get to the quaterback leaving room for bad pass coverage with help from kearse and howard at the ends, our recievers suck and i would give nything for D. Branch at this point who is looking for a trade, if u haven’t been paying attention we have run up the middle and it takes a fast back like westbrook to beet the blitz for a big gain not a bruiser, ever watch reggie bush run between the tackles, LJ is not a star, but he can get open unlike our recievers, nyway we will win and we will do it with defense, we didn’t have line backers before we probably have better now, ill agree to micah’s schedule only i say we beat atlanta and are in great position for the wild card at 10-6
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grifter- you said the eagles went to all those nfc title games because the east was bad ..but didnt they have to play and beat teams out side of the divison to get to the nfccg-just a thought
I love seeing things like this when the season is over and OP is proven wrong. GO BIRDS!
Kevin,
I love seeing people like you act like you knew all along that they WOULD make the playoffs.
Plus, if you paid a little more attention to the site, you’d realize that Micah claimed they *would* make the playoffs because of the Daunte Stallworth signing.
Try again dude.